BTC and LSK Price #FunAnalysis – July, Week3
This is not investment advice. This is a FunAnalysis made by a LSK community member. Lisk Magazine is not responsible for the content of this article.
LISK Chart Analysis:
I’m not going to beat around the bush, things simply aren’t looking good for the current price of LSK.
This is mainly due to the low LSK-BTC valuation as the BTC dominance continues to soar.
With that said, let’s have a look and see if we’re able to call a proverbial bottom by looking at a couple of charts. As seen in the image above we’re very close to the all-time-low for LSK in terms of Satoshis.
LSK hit all-time-low on the 2nd of March 2017 just shy of 1 year after it’s initial listing on BITTREX:
In true Altcoin fashion, regardless of the passage of time, we’re finally reaching a full 100% retracement. This does not by any means indicate that LSK will go to zero but rather that the upside riskreward potential is that much higher. These are exciting times and could provide the clever investor with life changing opportunities whilst we eagerly await the release of our SDK.
Part of my analysis is looking for repeating patters in the market, some might refer to it as fractals however I choose to see them as indicators for future price action.
Call me crazy but these two areas look awfully similar.. and I do not believe in coincidences. Unfortunately, if this pattern tends to repeat, that could indicate a breach of the support levels within the next 2-3 weeks. Is the bottom in or do we have lower to go? Alt season could be upon us..
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that something big is on the horizon, BTC dominance has skyrocketed and the bears seem to be unable to tame this beast. Between the Tether | Bitfinex | Tron scandals, I’m of the opinion that we’re about to see a Mt. Gox level dump coming in the price of Bitcoin. This exponential rise in the price and consistent uptrend lasting roughly 5 months without any meaningful retracement does not bode well for the entire Cryptosphere. Long lasting damage has already been done to the overall market structure and an equilibrium must be found, either with the market makers or the market breakers.
With that said, let us look towards BTC for some guidance..
BTC Chart analysis:
Here we go.. the Monthly chart of Bitcoin looking as unhealthy and unsustainable as can be:
Notice the absence of any Red candles in the chart towards the end. Looking at the curve or trend in the price of BTC it’s clear that it favours that line quite significantly and tends to revisit it every so often.
We were well on our way to bounce off and confirm the next bull market but instead the whales came to town. The 2013 bull market saw a parabolic rise, similar to what we have now and was met with a swift 76% correction. Are we doomed to repeat this same drop in the price.. well the technicals seem to agree if you take a gander at that trendline.
So where’s our hero you ask? Well Captain Ahab had technical difficulties as his lance was in the shop.. but he’s ready to hunt them whales in the form of a possible corrective C-Wave:
Naturally there are numerous factors involved, it’s never that simple. There’s a whole plethora of technical indicators which not only help us identify the trend and possible levels of resistance or support, but also the dreaded Algo bots programmed to thwart us at every turn.
Personally I’m a fan of the 0.786 fib line in terms of a retracement but is contradicted by the popular golden 0.618 fib line, this belief is supported by numerous points of confluence as seen below:
We have the 200-Weekly MA + EMA coming up fast. There’s the the $5000 support line due to 4 week long price action within that zone creating additional support.. and then lastly support created @ $5000 back in 2017 after rocketing up from $3000.
$5K is very strong support when taking the above into account:
- Fib line.
- Both 200-Weekly moving averages.
- $5K support & resistance zones.
Bonus: Fib Circles!
Say what you want about Fib circles but they work.. thank you to OPTICALARTdotCOM on Youtube for bringing this to my attention. I take no credit for any of the technical analysis derived from these patterns, please support him by checking out his channel.
If drawn properly you will see that there’s a clear reaction in the price once price reaches one of these circles. Dependant on external factors it is possible to gauge how it will react once this happens. The current belief is that BTC will dump and dump hard once the next circle is breached. Outside of what is portrayed in the chart above, I have additional technical indicators which point towards the month of September for this dump to occur.
So what’s next for Bitcoin in terms of its immediate future? Do we consolidate and trade sideways within the $9000 – $13000 price range until September or do we quickly dip down to purgatory for an additional 50% drop in price? Time will tell..